Nimbus
Electricity markets are shaped by weather, policy, and grid topology — making price and congestion risk inherently probabilistic. A probabilistic forecast shows a range of possible outcomes and their likelihood, rather than a single predicted value. We've created this tool for you to turn any forecast into a probabilistic forecast. Base examples, as well ERCOT specific examples are included. To get started, select an example dataset and select Create Probabilistic Forecast! Distill helps you make better decisions with less risk.
Example Data
Data
Paste or type up to 30 rows of forecast data. Use multiple columns for separate observations at each time step.
Adjust
Fine-tune the forecast after fitting. These controls modify the model without re-running the full search.
Shape
Control how closely the mean tracks the data points.
Uncertainty
Widen or narrow the confidence bands around the mean.
Structure
Add or remove model components to capture more detail.
Distribution
Allow asymmetric bands for data with skewed tails.